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The Theory behind Low Pocket Pairs By: TMoney tmoney@pockettwos.com
Much has been written on how to play low pocket pairs, 22 33 44 55 and 66, but too often I see many people play these hands incorrectly. The most important thing to realize about small pocket pairs is that although they are a made hand, they stand little chance of winning the pot as is. Imagine, for example that you are in pot with pocket 3’s and your opponents have KQ, 89, and A6. You actually have the best individual chance of winning, statistically speaking, but it is meaningless because when you miss your set on the flop, chances are someone in the pot will pair up an over card. As you can see in this example, if an Ace, King, Queen, 8, 9, or 6 fell, then you are already behind. And even if one of those cards did not fall, you still must assume (most of the time) that someone has made a higher pair and your low pair is no longer good. Not to mention, if you are up against a higher pocket pair then you are already beat going into the hand and have a slim chance of winning. Basically, in the high majority of times, you must make 3 of a kind (set) with your low pocket pairs to win. What does this mean as far as betting strategy goes for low pocket pairs? Well, there is much to consider. In early position it is good to just call with low pockets. In fact, many pros may even fold low pocket pairs under the gun (1st position) because there will most likely be a raise to follow them. I would almost never raise before the flop as you are not trying to push people out of the pot, because you are drawing to something that no one else is, your low card! You figure if you miss you fold the hand, but if you hit, you want to take as many people’s money as possible. Similarly, in later position, again just call the blind. The only time a raise might be justified is if you are on the button and there is only 1 or no callers. Now, in a situation where someone raises, there is more to consider, mainly pot odds. You can figure out your pot odds by comparing the amount needed to call as a fraction of the pot to the chance of hitting your set on the flop (see Pot odds and calculating outs). Using this method, being that your chance of making a set on the flop is 13%, the amount you would consider calling should be no more than 13% of the pot to merit a call. If it is more than 13% than you would be giving money away more times than you would be hitting your set. However, low pocket pairs are unique in that they give you great implied odds (see Pot odds). Good implied odds means that if you make your hand, then not only will you almost always win the hand, but second best hands will be made, thus increasing the amount you will win. Because of these implied odds, it can sometimes be okay to call more than 13% of the pot before the flop, because if you hit, it will be pay day! I feel it is worth mentioning that low pocket pairs are a different type of hand when there is an all in and you are heads up with one player. Here, a low pocket pair is a stronger hand, considering you are most likely up against two over cards. This is a coin flip situation; in fact you are even a slight favorite because you get to stay to the river for free without being bet into. Overall, to make a long story short, the theory behind low pocket pairs is: 1) Try to get in as cheaply as possible 2) If you miss the flop check/fold. Fishing for turn and river sets when it costs you will end up draining your bankroll. 3) If you hit your set, try to slow play and trap the player. Perhaps a check raise on the turn would capitalize your gains.
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